Closing spread
OAK -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/34 | 145 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 2 | 11 | 20 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 3 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.