Closing spread
OAK -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:47 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:40 | 7 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:42 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 3:14 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:26 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q1 1:14 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:53 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:17 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:25 | 7 | 84 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| ARI | Q2 5:31 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:08 | 6 | 62 | End of half | 21–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 62 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| ARI | Q3 9:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:04 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 35–14 |
| ARI | Q3 5:02 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 35–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:24 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 38–14 |
| ARI | Q3 0:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 38–14 |
| LV | Q4 14:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 38–14 |
| ARI | Q4 13:16 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 38–20 |
| LV | Q4 10:49 | 9 | 33 | Turnover | 38–20 |
| ARI | Q4 7:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 38–20 |
| LV | Q4 6:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 38–20 |
| ARI | Q4 4:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 38–20 |
| LV | Q4 3:30 | 5 | 39 | Field goal | 41–20 |
| ARI | Q4 1:56 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 41–20 |
| LV | Q4 1:35 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 41–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/34 | 145 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 2 | 11 | 20 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 3 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.