Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 12/26 | 122 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Stephen Williams | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.