Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRKnee· DNP
- OutRobert GalleryGHamstring· DNP
- OutTravis GoethelLBBack· DNP
- QuestionableChris JohnsonCBNeck· DNP
- QuestionableHiram EugeneSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJohn HendersonDTFoot· DNP
- QuestionableWalter McFaddenCBHamstring· Limited
- LimitedMichael HuffSIllness
- ProbableMichael BushRBThumb· Full
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTHamstring· Full
- ProbableRicky BrownLBHamstring· Full
Cardinals
- OutEarly DoucetWRGroin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableAlan FanecaGBack· Limited
- QuestionableChris WellsRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSteve BreastonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableWill DavisLBHead· Limited
- ProbableClark HaggansLBHeel· Full
- ProbableHamza AbdullahSHamstring· Full
- ProbableKenny IwebemaDEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 14:46 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 12:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:46 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 10:54 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:04 | 4 | 24 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:42 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LV | Q1 3:55 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| ARI | Q1 1:54 | 13 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| LV | Q2 10:44 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 13–17 |
| ARI | Q2 5:52 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LV | Q2 4:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| ARI | Q2 4:10 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| LV | Q2 2:40 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| ARI | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 20–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–17 |
| ARI | Q3 13:19 | 9 | 16 | Punt | 20–17 |
| LV | Q3 7:58 | 7 | 76 | Missed field goal | 20–17 |
| ARI | Q3 5:03 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| LV | Q3 1:01 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 20–24 |
| LV | Q4 11:38 | 9 | -2 | Field goal | 23–24 |
| ARI | Q4 7:59 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 23–24 |
| LV | Q4 6:20 | 5 | 34 | Missed field goal | 23–24 |
| ARI | Q4 4:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 23–24 |
| LV | Q4 3:33 | 10 | 27 | Missed field goal | 23–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 12/26 | 122 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Stephen Williams | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.