Closing spread
LV -5.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.009
- 40.7%Success rate43.4%
- -0.079EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.70CPOE-2.03
- 35.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.60Points / drive2.10
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. LV are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 31/49 | 277 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 1 |
| James Conner | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| James Conner | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 25/39 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 6 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75