2022 · Week 2

Final / OT

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

29·23

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -5.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.009
  • 40.7%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.071
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.70CPOE-2.03
  • 35.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.10
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. LV are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W11OAK @ ARI23–21RAIDERS
2014 · W7ARI @ OAK24–13ARI
2010 · W3OAK @ ARI23–24ARI
2006 · W7ARI @ OAK9–22RAIDERS
2002 · W12OAK @ ARI41–20RAIDERS
2001 · W12ARI @ OAK34–31ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LV
LVQ1 15:001772Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 5:22619Punt0–7
LVQ1 1:21976Field goal0–10
ARIQ2 11:40519Punt0–10
LVQ2 9:02759Touchdown0–17
ARIQ2 7:001048Turnover0–17
LVQ2 1:51951Field goal0–20
ARIQ3 15:0052Punt0–20
LVQ3 13:0738Punt0–20
ARIQ3 11:301294Touchdown7–20
LVQ3 6:03926Field goal7–23
ARIQ3 1:38964Turnover on downs7–23
LVQ4 12:3130Punt7–23
ARIQ4 12:071059Touchdown15–23
LVQ4 8:13514Punt15–23
ARIQ4 4:432065Touchdown23–23
ARIOT843Turnover on downs23–23
LVOT518Opp touchdown29–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray31/4927711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams8597.41
Eno Benjamin8313.90
Kyler Murray5285.61
James Conner7253.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz811750
Marquise Brown611680
Greg Dortch44551
James Conner24260
Eno Benjamin34200
A.J. Green37160
Andre Baccellia22120
Darrel Williams2330
Stephen Anderson1120

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr25/3925220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs19693.60
Derek Carr199.00
Zamir White122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins58660
Hunter Renfrow710590
Darren Waller68501
Foster Moreau34300
Ameer Abdullah11230
Davante Adams27121
Josh Jacobs11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.75