Closing spread
ARI -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJordy NelsonWRKnee· DNP
- OutMartavis BryantWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableKyle WilberLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNick NelsonCBIllness· Limited
- DNPJon FelicianoGRibs
- LimitedDaryl WorleyCBShoulder
- LimitedKelechi OsemeleGKnee
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Cardinals
- OutBudda BakerSKnee· DNP
- OutChad WilliamsWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableD.J. HumphriesTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMike IupatiGBack· Limited
- QuestionablePhil DawsonKright Hip· DNP
- QuestionableRobert NkemdicheDTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableRodney GunterDTNot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableRudy FordSHeel· DNP
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:09 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:36 | 10 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:14 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 1:56 | 3 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:16 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 12:49 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 11:57 | 7 | 50 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 8:20 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 4:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 2:02 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:02 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q3 10:26 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:01 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| ARI | Q3 0:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:30 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 20–14 |
| ARI | Q4 7:39 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| LV | Q4 5:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–21 |
| ARI | Q4 3:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–21 |
| LV | Q4 3:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–21 |
| ARI | Q4 2:39 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 20–21 |
| LV | Q4 1:53 | 6 | 63 | Field goal | 23–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 9/20 | 136 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 25 | 137 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 77 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 4 | 23 | 2 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.