Closing spread
ARI -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 9/20 | 136 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 25 | 137 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 77 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 4 | 23 | 2 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.