Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/31 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| John Brown | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.