Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 13/32 | 203 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.