Closing spread
GB -3
Total
43
Model margin
-2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.282
- 42.5%Success rate40.8%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.375
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.76Points / drive0.28
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/42 | 362 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 26/45 | 311 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 31 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 17 | 116 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 7 | 104 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.63