2016 · Week 1

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+0.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.127EPA / play-0.060
  • 45.9%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.210
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.71CPOE-4.51
  • 47.4%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.52
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8GB @ JAX30–27GB
2020 · W10JAX @ GB20–24GB
2012 · W8JAX @ GB15–24GB
2008 · W15GB @ JAX16–20JAX
2004 · W15JAX @ GB28–25JAX
2001 · W12GB @ JAX28–21GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00513Turnover0–0
GBQ1 12:41724Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 9:3685Punt7–0
GBQ1 5:5633Punt7–0
JAXQ1 5:04348Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 3:4036Punt7–7
JAXQ1 2:1039Punt7–7
GBQ2 15:003-1Punt7–7
JAXQ2 13:401150Field goal7–10
GBQ2 7:48975Touchdown14–10
JAXQ2 3:05775Touchdown14–17
GBQ2 1:09545Touchdown21–17
JAXQ2 0:1300End of half21–17
GBQ3 15:001273Field goal24–17
JAXQ3 10:12954Field goal24–20
GBQ3 6:151764Field goal27–20
JAXQ4 12:011342Field goal27–23
GBQ4 5:1236Punt27–23
JAXQ4 3:171253Turnover on downs27–23
GBQ4 0:1400End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3419920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy14614.40
Aaron Rodgers4164.01
Randall Cobb3113.70
James Starks471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb68570
Davante Adams37501
Jordy Nelson69321
Richard Rodgers13220
Eddie Lacy12170
Jared Abbrederis1180
Jared Cook1270
James Starks1160

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles24/3932011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon21391.91
Denard Robinson372.30
Blake Bortles221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns45750
Allen Robinson615720
Julius Thomas55641
Marcedes Lewis22480
T.J. Yeldon46300
Marqise Lee24220
Rashad Greene1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.35