Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play-0.060
- 45.9%Success rate41.3%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.210
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.71CPOE-4.51
- 47.4%Third-down rate34.7%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 2.39Points / drive1.52
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/34 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 24/39 | 320 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 21 | 39 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 15 | 72 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35