Closing spread
GB -13.5
Total
47
Model margin
+12.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.221
- 42.0%Success rate50.7%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.086EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.40CPOE+6.90
- 40.6%Third-down rate50.7%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 1.74Points / drive2.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. GB are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Luton | 18/35 | 169 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 23 | 109 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 5 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry Godwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/34 | 325 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 6 | 149 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 8 | 12 | 66 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
80.5%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.58
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+12.94