2020 · Week 10

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Jake Luton

20·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

GB -13.5

Total

47

Model margin

+12.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPackers
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.221
  • 42.0%Success rate50.7%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.086EPA / rush+0.025
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.40CPOE+6.90
  • 40.6%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.98
  • 2.3%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. GB are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8GB @ JAX30–27GB
2016 · W1GB @ JAX27–23GB
2012 · W8JAX @ GB15–24GB
2008 · W15GB @ JAX16–20JAX
2004 · W15JAX @ GB28–25JAX
2001 · W12GB @ JAX28–21GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–GB
GBQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:22629Field goal3–0
GBQ1 10:36624Punt3–0
JAXQ1 7:17533Punt3–0
GBQ1 5:0237Punt3–0
JAXQ1 3:2236Punt3–0
GBQ1 1:47491Touchdown3–7
JAXQ2 14:47519Punt3–7
GBQ2 12:3235Opp touchdown10–7
GBQ2 10:061481Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 2:15312Turnover10–14
GBQ2 1:28615Field goal10–17
JAXQ2 0:0200End of half10–17
JAXQ3 15:00514Punt10–17
GBQ3 12:10122Turnover10–17
JAXQ3 11:56426Touchdown17–17
GBQ3 10:30927Turnover on downs17–17
JAXQ3 7:09829Punt17–17
GBQ3 2:43433Turnover17–17
JAXQ3 1:16753Field goal20–17
GBQ4 12:40775Touchdown20–24
JAXQ4 9:031138Punt20–24
GBQ4 4:0639Punt20–24
JAXQ4 2:2571Turnover on downs20–24
GBQ4 1:0100End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Luton18/3516911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson231094.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark45560
Keelan Cole57471
Chris Conley48430
Tyler Eifert24150
Dare Ogunbowale1250
James Robinson2530
James O'Shaughnessy0100
Terry Godwin0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3432521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13463.50
Jamaal Williams8303.80
Aaron Rodgers341.31
Tyler Ervin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling461491
Davante Adams812661
Aaron Jones56490
Robert Tonyan34330
Jamaal Williams34250
Tyler Ervin1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.55.9%2.1%2.9%4.6%3.4%3.7%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

80.5%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.58
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+12.94