Closing spread
GB -15
Total
45
Model margin
+6.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play+0.102
- 40.0%Success rate46.3%
- -0.106EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.09CPOE+5.43
- 28.8%Third-down rate42.8%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 0.96Points / drive2.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. GB are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 27/49 | 303 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 12 | 116 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 4 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/35 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 22 | 54 | 2.5 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Alex Green | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.64