2012 · Week 8

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

15·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -15

Total

45

Model margin

+6.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapPackers
  • -0.115EPA / play+0.102
  • 40.0%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -5.09CPOE+5.43
  • 28.8%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 0.96Points / drive2.11
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. GB are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8GB @ JAX30–27GB
2020 · W10JAX @ GB20–24GB
2016 · W1GB @ JAX27–23GB
2008 · W15GB @ JAX16–20JAX
2004 · W15JAX @ GB28–25JAX
2001 · W12GB @ JAX28–21GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–GB
JAXQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:4032Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:59756Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:23969Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 2:541067Turnover3–7
GBQ2 12:58615Punt3–7
JAXQ2 10:35517Opp touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 8:4575Punt3–14
GBQ2 6:2189Punt3–14
JAXQ2 2:35762Field goal6–14
GBQ2 1:031-7Turnover6–14
JAXQ2 0:52513Touchdown12–14
GBQ2 0:1713End of half12–14
GBQ3 15:00612Punt12–14
JAXQ3 12:433-10Punt12–14
GBQ3 11:15723Turnover on downs12–14
JAXQ3 8:3136Punt12–14
GBQ3 6:311051Missed field goal12–14
JAXQ3 1:2133Punt12–14
GBQ3 0:18748Touchdown12–21
JAXQ4 12:361161Field goal15–21
GBQ4 6:5033Punt15–21
JAXQ4 5:52748Turnover on downs15–21
GBQ4 2:55611Field goal15–24
JAXQ4 0:2840Turnover on downs15–24
GBQ4 0:0700End of half15–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert27/4930310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings17593.50
Jalen Parmele231.50
Blaine Gabbert100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts8121160
Justin Blackmon48670
Rashad Jennings68560
Marcedes Lewis27210
Mike Thomas47190
Jalen Parmele11160
Micheal Spurlock1270
Kevin Elliott0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3518620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Green22542.50
James Starks188.00
Aaron Rodgers341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones79780
Randall Cobb57281
Alex Green46280
Jermichael Finley26240
Donald Driver22101
James Starks1290
Jarrett Boykin1190
Tom Crabtree0100
D.J. Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +157.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.64