Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.110
- 39.9%Success rate46.2%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- 36.7%Third-down rate46.7%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 1.27Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. GB are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 9/20 | 121 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 165 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/44 | 367 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47