Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.110
- 39.9%Success rate46.2%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- 36.7%Third-down rate46.7%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 1.27Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. GB are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:56 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:34 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 8:58 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:15 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:41 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 13:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 11:19 | 11 | 40 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 5:31 | 2 | -4 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q2 4:44 | 7 | 30 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| GB | Q2 2:28 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| JAX | Q2 1:10 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–10 |
| GB | Q2 0:07 | 1 | -8 | End of half | 14–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| JAX | Q3 11:44 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| GB | Q3 10:15 | 9 | 66 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| JAX | Q3 5:27 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 21–17 |
| GB | Q3 1:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–17 |
| JAX | Q3 0:40 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| GB | Q4 9:49 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| JAX | Q4 9:35 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 28–17 |
| GB | Q4 5:29 | 6 | 66 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| JAX | Q4 3:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–17 |
| GB | Q4 2:32 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 28–25 |
| JAX | Q4 1:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 9/20 | 121 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 165 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/44 | 367 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47