2024 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

30·27

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

-1.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.023
  • 44.8%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.067
  • 11.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.37CPOE-0.88
  • 37.6%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W10JAX @ GB20–24GB
2016 · W1GB @ JAX27–23GB
2012 · W8JAX @ GB15–24GB
2008 · W15GB @ JAX16–20JAX
2004 · W15JAX @ GB28–25JAX
2001 · W12GB @ JAX28–21GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–JAX
GBQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:3138Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:5435Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:1537Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:111276Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 13:5821Turnover0–0
GBQ2 12:5647Touchdown7–0
JAXQ2 11:3137Punt7–0
GBQ2 9:24672Field goal10–0
JAXQ2 6:03775Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 2:37946Field goal13–7
JAXQ2 0:54553Field goal13–10
GBQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
JAXQ3 15:0038Punt13–10
GBQ3 13:31420Punt13–10
JAXQ3 10:431098Touchdown13–17
GBQ3 5:10880Touchdown20–17
JAXQ3 0:213-6Turnover20–17
GBQ4 14:4625Touchdown27–17
JAXQ4 14:063-1Punt27–17
GBQ4 13:05619Punt27–17
JAXQ4 9:40753Field goal27–20
GBQ4 5:3633Punt27–20
JAXQ4 3:50887Touchdown27–27
GBQ4 1:48466Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love14/2219601
Malik Willis4/55610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs251275.12
Malik Willis4235.80
Chris Brooks4164.00
Emanuel Wilson451.30
Jayden Reed100.00
Jordan Love1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tucker Kraft33781
Romeo Doubs36720
Jayden Reed23550
Christian Watson46390
Dontayvion Wicks22110
Chris Brooks1110
Bo Melton0100
Ben Sims0100
Josh Jacobs12-20
Emanuel Wilson22-20

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence21/3230821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby18784.30
Trevor Lawrence4102.51
D'Ernest Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.34601
Christian Kirk25590
Brenton Strange55590
Parker Washington34460
Evan Engram45361
D'Ernest Johnson12200
Tim Jones12200
Tank Bigsby2380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.32