Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-1.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.023
- 44.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.37CPOE-0.88
- 37.6%Third-down rate36.6%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.38Points / drive1.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14/22 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 4/5 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 25 | 127 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Malik Willis | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 3 | 78 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 21/32 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.32