Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.004
- 43.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.032
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.24CPOE+3.08
- 44.1%Third-down rate41.7%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.94Points / drive1.65
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:03 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q1 2:33 | 7 | 36 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:35 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 8:33 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 4:02 | 8 | 75 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:33 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 13–7 |
| JAX | Q3 11:36 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 9:17 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–7 |
| JAX | Q3 4:59 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 3:06 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| JAX | Q4 14:54 | 10 | 41 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| GB | Q4 10:39 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| JAX | Q4 5:35 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–20 |
| GB | Q4 1:56 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 16–20 |
| JAX | Q4 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/32 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 21 | 56 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 21/33 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.57