2001 · Week 12

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

16·21

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

41

Model margin

+6.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.060
  • 42.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.58
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4MIN @ PIT21–24PIT
2021 · W14PIT @ MIN28–36MIN
2017 · W2MIN @ PIT9–26PIT
2013 · W4PIT @ MIN27–34MIN
2009 · W7MIN @ PIT17–27PIT
2005 · W15PIT @ MIN18–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:001027Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:35624Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:42222Turnover0–0
MINQ1 5:44846Field goal3–0
PITQ1 1:281068Touchdown3–7
MINQ2 10:26863Missed field goal3–7
PITQ2 5:151170Missed field goal3–7
MINQ2 0:31415Punt3–7
MINQ3 15:0037Punt3–7
PITQ3 12:511165Touchdown3–14
MINQ3 7:0400Touchdown3–14
PITQ3 6:501047Touchdown3–21
MINQ3 0:44221Turnover3–21
PITQ4 14:4839Punt3–21
MINQ4 12:46950Turnover3–21
PITQ4 8:2738Punt9–21
MINQ4 6:44180Touchdown10–21
PITQ4 6:2938Punt10–21
MINQ4 4:19474Touchdown16–21
PITQ4 3:223-5Turnover16–21
MINQ4 2:1355Turnover on downs16–21
PITQ4 1:43445End of half16–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Bouman11/1520021
Daunte Culpepper12/1714001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett13342.60
Doug Chapman199.00
Todd Bouman144.00
Travis Prentice1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss8131441
Michael Bennett22801
Cris Carter45350
Jake Reed22350
Byron Chamberlain24250
Chris Walsh2270
Doug Chapman11-40

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart13/1915701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis19814.31
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala12746.20
Amos Zereoue5153.01
Troy Edwards11212.01
Kordell Stewart791.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress68860
Hines Ward36370
Jerome Bettis11160
Jerame Tuman12120
Bobby Shaw1130
Amos Zereoue1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.94