Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
41
Model margin
+6.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.060
- 42.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.5%
- 42.5%Third-down rate45.8%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.40Points / drive1.58
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 11/15 | 200 | 2 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 12/17 | 140 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 8 | 13 | 144 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 2 | 80 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/19 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.94