2017 · Week 2

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

9·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

PIT -8.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.5%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +3.66CPOE+3.69
  • 44.3%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.22
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4MIN @ PIT21–24PIT
2021 · W14PIT @ MIN28–36MIN
2013 · W4PIT @ MIN27–34MIN
2009 · W7MIN @ PIT17–27PIT
2005 · W15PIT @ MIN18–3PIT
2001 · W12MIN @ PIT16–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0047Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:42719Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:451161Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 3:023-3Punt0–7
PITQ1 1:43616Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 13:311051Field goal3–14
PITQ2 8:5032Punt3–14
MINQ2 7:5031Punt3–14
PITQ2 6:54511Punt3–14
MINQ2 5:103-8Punt3–14
PITQ2 3:00942Punt3–14
MINQ2 0:3517End of half3–14
MINQ3 15:0046Turnover on downs3–14
PITQ3 14:2533Field goal3–17
MINQ3 12:19765Touchdown9–17
PITQ3 9:57974Field goal9–20
MINQ3 5:051153Punt9–20
PITQ3 0:07952Punt9–20
MINQ4 9:59517Punt9–20
PITQ4 8:021064Field goal9–23
MINQ4 3:18820Turnover on downs9–23
PITQ4 2:1335Field goal9–26
MINQ4 1:5349Turnover9–26
PITQ4 0:5000End of half9–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum20/3716700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook12645.30
Jerick McKinnon3165.30
Latavius Murray362.00
Stefon Diggs144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph46450
Adam Thielen56440
Laquon Treadwell36330
Stefon Diggs26270
Jarius Wright1290
Jerick McKinnon3590
Blake Bell0100
David Morgan0100
Dalvin Cook2300

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3524320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell27873.20
James Conner199.00
Martavis Bryant177.00
Terrell Watson111.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martavis Bryant34911
Antonio Brown511620
Eli Rogers47430
Jesse James45270
JuJu Smith-Schuster34161
Le'Veon Bell4440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.53