Closing spread
PIT -8.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.076
- 42.5%Success rate46.0%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.66CPOE+3.69
- 44.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 2.02Points / drive2.22
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 20/37 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/35 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 27 | 87 | 3.2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 4 | 91 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.53