Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.074
- 43.9%Success rate40.6%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.185
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.1%
- 35.7%Third-down rate33.7%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.99Points / drive1.46
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 73 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:07 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:48 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:25 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:25 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q1 1:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q1 0:03 | 11 | 47 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q2 10:40 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q2 9:05 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q2 6:42 | 6 | 12 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q2 3:30 | 9 | 50 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 40 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| PIT | Q3 10:00 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q3 3:49 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q3 3:45 | 4 | 26 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| MIN | Q3 0:36 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 16–3 |
| PIT | Q4 14:31 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 18–3 |
| MIN | Q4 11:51 | 1 | -2 | Safety | 18–3 |
| PIT | Q4 11:45 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 18–3 |
| MIN | Q4 6:49 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 18–3 |
| PIT | Q4 5:59 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 18–3 |
| MIN | Q4 3:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 18–3 |
| PIT | Q4 3:15 | 7 | 32 | End of half | 18–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 10/15 | 149 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/30 | 143 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49