Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.027
- 43.3%Success rate44.1%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.84CPOE+0.58
- 32.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.75Points / drive2.11
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 30/46 | 350 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 11 | 126 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 6 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/22 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 19 | 99 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 5 | 126 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.78