2025 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Carson Wentz

21·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.027
  • 43.3%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.001
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.84CPOE+0.58
  • 32.4%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.11
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W14PIT @ MIN28–36MIN
2017 · W2MIN @ PIT9–26PIT
2013 · W4PIT @ MIN27–34MIN
2009 · W7MIN @ PIT17–27PIT
2005 · W15PIT @ MIN18–3PIT
2001 · W12MIN @ PIT16–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:491156Field goal3–0
PITQ1 6:24971Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 0:55517Punt3–13
PITQ2 12:28180Touchdown3–14
MINQ2 12:161031Turnover3–14
PITQ2 5:501135Missed field goal3–14
MINQ2 1:38861Field goal6–14
PITQ2 0:1200End of half6–14
MINQ3 15:003-9Punt6–14
PITQ3 13:0937Punt6–14
MINQ3 11:031133Turnover6–14
PITQ3 5:15535Touchdown6–21
MINQ3 2:233-9Punt6–21
PITQ3 0:35731Field goal6–24
MINQ4 11:18970Touchdown14–24
PITQ4 7:50949Turnover on downs14–24
MINQ4 4:09799Touchdown21–24
PITQ4 2:0839Punt21–24
MINQ4 1:02723Turnover on downs21–24
PITQ4 0:0800End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz30/4635022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason16573.60
Carson Wentz2126.00
Zavier Scott210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson10111260
Jordan Addison481140
Zavier Scott68431
T.J. Hockenson45390
Jordan Mason33150
Adam Thielen22110
Jalen Nailor1421
Josh Oliver0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2220010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell19995.22
Kaleb Johnson6223.70
Aaron Rodgers382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf551261
Kenny Gainwell66350
Darnell Washington33200
Calvin Austin III22130
Jonnu Smith2360
Scott Miller0100
Ben Skowronek0100
Kaleb Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.78