2013 · Week 4

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapVikings
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.017
  • 42.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.096EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.173EPA / rush-0.002
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +3.30CPOE-2.09
  • 37.6%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4MIN @ PIT21–24PIT
2021 · W14PIT @ MIN28–36MIN
2017 · W2MIN @ PIT9–26PIT
2009 · W7MIN @ PIT17–27PIT
2005 · W15PIT @ MIN18–3PIT
2001 · W12MIN @ PIT16–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–MIN
MINQ1 15:00832Field goal0–3
PITQ1 12:08517Punt0–3
MINQ1 9:02376Touchdown0–10
PITQ1 8:06875Touchdown7–10
MINQ1 4:0232Punt7–10
PITQ1 2:3337Punt7–10
MINQ1 1:2735Punt7–10
PITQ1 0:26417Punt7–16
MINQ2 12:52160Touchdown7–17
PITQ2 12:421463Field goal10–17
MINQ2 3:39737Field goal10–20
PITQ2 0:39214End of half10–20
PITQ3 15:00732Touchdown17–20
MINQ3 11:28785Touchdown17–27
PITQ3 7:52412Turnover17–27
MINQ3 5:38222Touchdown17–34
PITQ3 5:11414Punt17–34
MINQ3 3:0439Punt17–34
PITQ3 0:55962Touchdown24–34
MINQ4 12:42845Missed field goal24–34
PITQ4 6:49854Field goal27–34
MINQ4 3:37622Punt27–34
PITQ4 1:43867Turnover27–34
MINQ4 0:0600End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger36/5138311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell16573.62
Antonio Brown11010.00
Jonathan Dwyer273.50
Felix Jones231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery561031
Antonio Brown1213880
Heath Miller68700
Emmanuel Sanders48570
Le'Veon Bell45270
Markus Wheaton35260
David Johnson1180
Felix Jones1140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel16/2524820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson231406.12
Matt Cassel252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson7111240
Greg Jennings34922
Cordarrelle Patterson1290
Toby Gerhart1170
Kyle Rudolph2260
Jarius Wright1160
John Carlson1240
Adrian Peterson0100
Joe Webb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.47