Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.017
- 42.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.096EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.002
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- +3.30CPOE-2.09
- 37.6%Third-down rate36.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.82Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 36/51 | 383 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 6 | 103 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 12 | 13 | 88 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/25 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 140 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 7 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 4 | 92 | 2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.47