Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.043
- 45.1%Success rate44.8%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.083
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.2%
- +5.77CPOE+4.22
- 45.4%Third-down rate40.3%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.31Points / drive1.83
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 34/51 | 334 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 11 | 14 | 136 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaymar Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/26 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29