2009 · Week 7

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

17·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.043
  • 45.1%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.083
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +5.77CPOE+4.22
  • 45.4%Third-down rate40.3%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.83
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4MIN @ PIT21–24PIT
2021 · W14PIT @ MIN28–36MIN
2017 · W2MIN @ PIT9–26PIT
2013 · W4PIT @ MIN27–34MIN
2005 · W15PIT @ MIN18–3PIT
2001 · W12MIN @ PIT16–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PIT
MINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:32412Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:123-4Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:4532Punt0–0
MINQ1 8:1068Punt0–0
PITQ1 4:26828Field goal0–3
MINQ1 0:04516Punt0–3
PITQ2 12:1238Punt0–3
MINQ2 10:341376Touchdown7–3
PITQ2 5:1235Punt7–3
MINQ2 3:30620Punt7–3
PITQ2 1:39791Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 0:2400End of half7–10
PITQ3 15:00832Field goal7–13
MINQ3 11:051364Field goal10–13
PITQ3 4:4438Punt10–13
MINQ3 2:5935Punt10–13
PITQ3 0:50572Turnover10–13
MINQ4 14:0817104Opp touchdown16–20
MINQ4 6:2300Touchdown17–20
PITQ4 6:0951Punt17–20
MINQ4 3:21755Opp touchdown17–27
MINQ4 1:00536End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre34/5133401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson18693.81
Chester Taylor3144.70
Percy Harvin177.00
Brett Favre1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice11141360
Adrian Peterson44600
Percy Harvin310420
Visanthe Shiancoe46270
Greg Lewis44180
Bernard Berrian23180
Jaymar Johnson1190
Chester Taylor1370
Jimmy Kleinsasser1240

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger14/2617510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall10696.90
Mike Wallace2199.50
Mewelde Moore4143.50
Willie Parker122.00
Ben Roethlisberger210.50
Santonio Holmes111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace34721
Santonio Holmes27590
Heath Miller66380
David Johnson1140
Hines Ward1330
Mewelde Moore0200
Rashard Mendenhall12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.29