2021 · Week 14

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·36

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapVikings
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.018
  • 40.2%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.66CPOE+0.82
  • 39.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.13
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4MIN @ PIT21–24PIT
2017 · W2MIN @ PIT9–26PIT
2013 · W4PIT @ MIN27–34MIN
2009 · W7MIN @ PIT17–27PIT
2005 · W15PIT @ MIN18–3PIT
2001 · W12MIN @ PIT16–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–MIN
MINQ1 15:00645Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 11:431036Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 5:32561Touchdown0–6
PITQ1 3:3138Punt0–6
MINQ1 1:45637Field goal0–9
PITQ2 14:433-6Punt0–9
MINQ2 13:01688Touchdown0–16
PITQ2 9:553-4Punt0–16
MINQ2 7:391260Touchdown0–23
PITQ2 2:2059Punt0–23
MINQ2 1:3539Punt0–23
PITQ2 0:44223End of half0–23
PITQ3 15:004-4Punt0–23
MINQ3 12:25610Field goal0–26
PITQ3 9:36327Turnover0–26
MINQ3 8:22618Field goal0–29
PITQ3 6:151165Touchdown7–29
MINQ3 2:1110Turnover7–29
PITQ3 2:03830Touchdown14–29
MINQ4 14:4933Punt14–29
PITQ4 13:17369Touchdown20–29
MINQ4 12:11375Touchdown20–36
PITQ4 10:5137Punt20–36
MINQ4 8:56622Turnover20–36
PITQ4 4:58221Touchdown28–36
MINQ4 4:14730Punt28–36
PITQ4 2:161194End of half28–36

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger28/4030831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris20944.71
Diontae Johnson177.00
Ben Roethlisberger155.00
Chase Claypool122.00
Benny Snell1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool89930
Diontae Johnson510760
James Washington46651
Ray-Ray McCloud68320
Pat Freiermuth23321
Najee Harris33101

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins14/3121622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook272057.62
Alexander Mattison6274.50
Kirk Cousins2147.00
Justin Jefferson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
K.J. Osborn39831
Justin Jefferson715791
Tyler Conklin22200
Dalvin Cook13170
Chris Herndon11170
Alexander Mattison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36