Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.018
- 40.2%Success rate41.6%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.66CPOE+0.82
- 39.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.65Points / drive2.13
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28/40 | 308 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 8 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| James Washington | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 6 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/31 | 216 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 27 | 205 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 15 | 79 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36