Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:10 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 10:49 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 8:48 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:46 | 5 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q1 5:47 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q1 5:47 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q1 3:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q1 0:46 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:03 | 11 | 60 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 8:52 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 5:11 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 1:57 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q2 1:01 | 6 | -2 | End of half | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 44 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 8:21 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q3 5:18 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 2:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q3 1:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 0:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q4 14:38 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 13:22 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q4 12:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 11:22 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q4 9:51 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 8:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–24 |
| PHI | Q4 7:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 5:29 | 9 | 82 | Missed field goal | 14–24 |
| PHI | Q4 1:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:06 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/44 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 15 | 21 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 5 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.