Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/44 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 15 | 21 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 5 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.