Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.061
- 47.4%Success rate46.4%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.71CPOE+0.39
- 45.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.55Points / drive2.39
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 32/38 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 12 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 11/17 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 6 | 116 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73