2021 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

27·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapEagles
  • +0.088EPA / play+0.061
  • 47.4%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.091
  • -0.075EPA / rush+0.025
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -0.71CPOE+0.39
  • 45.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 2.55Points / drive2.39
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14PHI @ LAC19–22CHARGERS
2017 · W4PHI @ LAC26–24PHI
2013 · W2SD @ PHI33–30CHARGERS
2009 · W10PHI @ SD23–31CHARGERS
2005 · W7SD @ PHI17–20PHI
2001 · W13SD @ PHI14–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:391598Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 5:4333Punt0–0
LACQ1 4:09638Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 0:501075Touchdown7–7
LACQ2 11:20845Turnover on downs7–7
PHIQ2 7:251568Field goal7–10
LACQ2 0:21111End of half7–10
LACQ3 15:00857Field goal10–10
PHIQ3 10:333-1Punt10–10
LACQ3 8:40466Touchdown16–10
PHIQ3 6:441085Touchdown16–17
LACQ3 3:101261Touchdown24–17
PHIQ4 11:321078Touchdown24–24
LACQ4 6:071369Field goal27–24
PHIQ4 0:0200End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert32/3835620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler17593.50
Justin Herbert5142.81
Andre Roberts199.00
Joshua Kelley362.00
Larry Rountree III111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen12131040
Mike Williams25580
Jared Cook44480
Stephen Anderson44391
Donald Parham33391
Austin Ekeler33230
Josh Palmer22220
Jalen Guyton12190
Joshua Kelley1140

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts11/1716210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard17714.21
Jalen Hurts10626.20
Boston Scott10404.00
Kenny Gainwell231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith561161
Dallas Goedert36430
Quez Watkins2390
Jalen Reagor11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.73