2017 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

26·24

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -1.5

Total

48

Model margin

+2.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapChargers
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.085
  • 43.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.38CPOE+0.86
  • 42.0%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14PHI @ LAC19–22CHARGERS
2021 · W9LAC @ PHI27–24CHARGERS
2013 · W2SD @ PHI33–30CHARGERS
2009 · W10PHI @ SD23–31CHARGERS
2005 · W7SD @ PHI17–20PHI
2001 · W13SD @ PHI14–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–LAC
LACQ1 15:00731Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 12:44963Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 8:00510Punt7–0
PHIQ1 5:401063Field goal10–0
LACQ1 0:05632Punt10–0
PHIQ2 11:571063Field goal13–0
LACQ2 6:42175Touchdown13–7
PHIQ2 6:32740Field goal16–7
LACQ2 4:0837Punt16–7
PHIQ2 2:52516Punt16–7
LACQ2 0:56772Field goal16–10
PHIQ3 15:0039Punt16–10
LACQ3 13:391143Punt16–10
PHIQ3 7:461370Field goal19–10
LACQ3 0:55960Touchdown19–17
PHIQ4 13:42971Touchdown26–17
LACQ4 9:14870Touchdown26–24
PHIQ4 6:441161End of half26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/3124210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount161368.50
Wendell Smallwood10343.41
Corey Clement10303.00
Carson Wentz6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz58810
Nelson Agholor34580
Wendell Smallwood46450
Alshon Jeffery36291
LeGarrette Blount11200
Torrey Smith1390
Brent Celek0100
Marcus Johnson0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers22/3834720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler13535.01
Melvin Gordon10222.20
Branden Oliver210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen5111380
Tyrell Williams561151
Austin Ekeler22230
Travis Benjamin25210
Antonio Gates35180
Hunter Henry23161
Dontrelle Inman1170
Melvin Gordon1370
Branden Oliver1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.60