Closing spread
LAC -1.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.085
- 43.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.38CPOE+0.86
- 42.0%Third-down rate40.7%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/31 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 136 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/38 | 347 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 11 | 138 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 5 | 6 | 115 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.60