Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
-1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutManti Te'oLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableBrandon TaylorSKnee· Full
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableSean LissemoreDTElbow· Full
Eagles
- OutBradley FletcherCBConcussion· DNP
- OutDennis KellyTBack· Limited
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:51 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:26 | 4 | 75 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:30 | 11 | 93 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| PHI | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:38 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q2 8:01 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:41 | 8 | 88 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| PHI | Q2 2:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:13 | 3 | 32 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| PHI | Q2 0:52 | 5 | 58 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| PHI | Q3 10:04 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| LAC | Q3 6:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–13 |
| PHI | Q3 5:08 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LAC | Q3 4:42 | 17 | 73 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| PHI | Q4 10:47 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 23–27 |
| LAC | Q4 7:06 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 30–27 |
| PHI | Q4 3:11 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 30–30 |
| LAC | Q4 1:51 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 33–30 |
| PHI | Q4 0:07 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 33–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 23/36 | 428 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 9 | 15 | 193 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 114 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.