Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
-1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 23/36 | 428 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 9 | 15 | 193 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 114 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.