2025 · Week 14

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

19·22

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapChargers
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.016
  • 43.3%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.080
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.26CPOE+0.01
  • 37.5%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.10
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9LAC @ PHI27–24CHARGERS
2017 · W4PHI @ LAC26–24PHI
2013 · W2SD @ PHI33–30CHARGERS
2009 · W10PHI @ SD23–31CHARGERS
2005 · W7SD @ PHI17–20PHI
2001 · W13SD @ PHI14–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–LAC
PHIQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:38680Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 8:49952Field goal3–7
LACQ1 3:2243Punt3–7
PHIQ1 1:1035Punt3–7
LACQ2 14:42520Punt3–7
PHIQ2 12:35848Turnover3–7
LACQ2 8:19630Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 4:5520Turnover3–10
LACQ2 4:381-12Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 4:311156Field goal6–10
LACQ2 0:4836Turnover6–10
PHIQ2 0:1010Missed field goal6–10
LACQ3 15:001542Field goal6–13
PHIQ3 5:32428Field goal9–13
LACQ3 3:224-3Punt9–13
PHIQ3 0:38456Touchdown16–13
LACQ4 14:51523Punt16–13
PHIQ4 11:49219Turnover16–13
LACQ4 11:03622Field goal16–16
PHIQ4 7:2634Punt16–16
LACQ4 5:463-4Punt16–16
PHIQ4 3:33734Field goal19–16
LACQ4 2:161134Field goal19–19
PHIQ4 0:0800End of half19–19
LACOT534Field goal19–22
PHIOT1057Turnover19–22

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts21/4024004

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley201226.11
Jalen Hurts482.00
Tank Bigsby144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown6131000
Dallas Goedert810780
DeVonta Smith48370
Darius Cooper11190
Jahan Dotson1330
Will Shipley1130
Saquon Barkley0200

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert12/2613911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert10666.60
Omarion Hampton13564.30
Kimani Vidal14443.10
Tre Harris133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kimani Vidal13600
Keenan Allen33220
Tre Harris12180
Ladd McConkey15120
Omarion Hampton22111
Quentin Johnston2380
Oronde Gadsden II1470
Will Dissly1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+0.49