Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.016
- 43.3%Success rate43.6%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.080
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.26CPOE+0.01
- 37.5%Third-down rate46.7%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.11Points / drive2.10
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/40 | 240 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 20 | 122 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 13 | 100 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Darius Cooper | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 12/26 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+0.49