Closing spread
SD -1
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Eagles
- OutAkeem JordanLBKnee· DNP
- OutKevin CurtisWRKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableJason PetersTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableQuintin DempsSAnkle· Full
- QuestionableVictor AbiamiriDEKnee· Full
- ProbableBrian WestbrookRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableChris GocongLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableDimitri PattersonCBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableJeremy MaclinWRFoot· Full
- ProbableLeonard WeaverRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike PattersonDTToe· Full
- ProbableMoise FokouLBIllness· Full
- ProbableVictor HarrisSAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutJyles TuckerLBAnkle· DNP
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulTim DobbinsLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableOgemdi NwagbuoDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableShaun PhillipsLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEFoot· Full
- ProbableKevin BurnettLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableLaDainian TomlinsonRBHip· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:01 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 7:52 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 2:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:45 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 11:01 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 6:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q2 4:24 | 13 | 87 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 6–14 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:24 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| PHI | Q3 8:01 | 5 | 77 | Field goal | 9–21 |
| LAC | Q3 5:51 | 10 | 49 | Touchdown | 9–28 |
| PHI | Q3 1:13 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| LAC | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 16–28 |
| PHI | Q4 12:19 | 13 | 87 | Touchdown | 23–28 |
| LAC | Q4 7:12 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 23–31 |
| PHI | Q4 0:30 | 5 | 32 | Turnover | 23–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 35/55 | 450 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 8 | 9 | 156 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 16 | 91 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 6 | 11 | 47 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.