Closing spread
SD -1
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 35/55 | 450 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 8 | 9 | 156 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 16 | 91 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 6 | 11 | 47 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.