Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
47
Model margin
+0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:47 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:16 | 7 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:56 | 4 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 1:17 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:23 | 2 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q2 13:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:57 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q2 10:49 | 10 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q2 6:10 | 1 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q2 5:23 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:47 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 3:44 | 10 | 81 | End of half | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q3 13:21 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q3 9:42 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q3 3:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 1:56 | 7 | 43 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| PHI | Q4 13:48 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q4 13:29 | 7 | 7 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q4 9:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 8:12 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q4 7:26 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q4 6:24 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–13 |
| PHI | Q4 4:42 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q4 3:29 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 1:59 | 4 | 41 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| PHI | Q4 1:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 35/54 | 287 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.