Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
47
Model margin
+0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 35/54 | 287 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.