Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play-0.050
- 39.7%Success rate42.2%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- 42.1%Third-down rate42.5%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.49Points / drive1.40
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 25/33 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bennett | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 8 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shad Meier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Berlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 21/31 | 348 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 16 | 113 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Todd Bouman | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 7 | 13 | 158 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58