2001 · Week 13

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

24·42

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Todd Bouman

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapVikings
  • -0.011EPA / play-0.050
  • 39.7%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.012
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.40
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.7%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed+0.044

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11MIN @ TEN23–13MIN
2020 · W3TEN @ MIN31–30TEN
2016 · W1MIN @ TEN25–16MIN
2012 · W5TEN @ MIN7–30MIN
2008 · W4MIN @ TEN17–30TEN
2004 · W7TEN @ MIN3–20MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIN
TENQ1 15:001284Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 8:0633Punt7–0
TENQ1 7:02959Field goal10–0
MINQ1 1:10750Punt10–0
TENQ2 12:0937Punt10–0
MINQ2 10:34654Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 7:40623Punt10–7
MINQ2 4:091075Touchdown10–14
TENQ2 0:40311End of half10–14
MINQ3 15:00457Touchdown10–21
TENQ3 12:36421Turnover10–27
MINQ3 10:40138Touchdown10–28
TENQ3 10:29419Punt10–28
MINQ3 8:05951Punt10–28
TENQ3 2:57980Touchdown17–28
MINQ4 14:071087Touchdown17–35
TENQ4 7:5315Turnover17–35
MINQ4 7:37410Turnover17–35
TENQ4 6:191280Touchdown24–35
MINQ4 2:57272Touchdown24–42
TENQ4 2:35864Turnover on downs24–42
MINQ4 0:151-1End of half24–42

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair25/3330220
Billy Volek0/3000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George21964.61
Skip Hicks46416.00
Steve McNair4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drew Bennett45870
Derrick Mason89751
Frank Wycheck56721
Kevin Dyson46500
Skip Hicks2390
Erron Kinney1190
Eddie George1200
Chris Coleman0100
Shad Meier0100
Eddie Berlin0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Bouman21/3134841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett161137.12
Todd Bouman4276.80
Doug Chapman492.30
Travis Prentice1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss7131581
Jake Reed34471
Cris Carter34460
Byron Chamberlain44451
Doug Chapman11381
Chris Walsh22160
Andrew Jordan0100
Michael Bennett11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.58