2024 · Week 11

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

23·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

40

Model margin

+1.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapTitans
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.104
  • 46.3%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.175
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.00CPOE+0.11
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.35
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. TEN are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W3TEN @ MIN31–30TEN
2016 · W1MIN @ TEN25–16MIN
2012 · W5TEN @ MIN7–30MIN
2008 · W4MIN @ TEN17–30TEN
2004 · W7TEN @ MIN3–20MIN
2001 · W13TEN @ MIN24–42MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TEN
TENQ1 15:0069Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:18310Turnover0–0
TENQ1 10:221044Field goal0–3
MINQ1 4:39454Touchdown7–3
TENQ1 3:16619Punt7–3
MINQ1 0:471884Touchdown13–3
TENQ2 7:4036Punt13–3
MINQ2 6:081245Field goal16–3
TENQ2 1:4168Punt16–3
MINQ2 0:2200End of half16–3
MINQ3 15:0034Punt16–3
TENQ3 13:1437Punt16–3
MINQ3 11:06517Punt16–3
TENQ3 8:30398Touchdown16–10
MINQ3 7:00860Touchdown23–10
TENQ3 3:15955Field goal23–13
MINQ4 14:08824Punt23–13
TENQ4 10:38510Turnover on downs23–13
MINQ4 8:3259Punt23–13
TENQ4 5:09738Turnover on downs23–13
MINQ4 2:2336Punt23–13
TENQ4 1:5710Turnover23–13
MINQ4 1:5036End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold20/3224620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones15392.60
Cam Akers10252.50
Sam Darnold8182.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson68810
Jordan Addison38611
Josh Oliver33340
Trent Sherfield11160
Johnny Mundt11130
Brandon Powell11130
T.J. Hockenson23130
Cam Akers22111
Aaron Jones1140
Jalen Nailor0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis17/3129511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Will Levis7182.60
Tony Pollard9151.70
Tyjae Spears300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine261171
Calvin Ridley46580
Tyler Boyd23340
Bryce Oliver11330
Chig Okonkwo24190
Tony Pollard24140
Tyjae Spears2380
Nick Vannett1160
Josh Whyle1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.84