Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.104
- 46.3%Success rate40.4%
- +0.135EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.175
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.00CPOE+0.11
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.09Points / drive1.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. TEN are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/32 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 17/31 | 295 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 6 | 117 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84