2016 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Shaun Hill

25·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapTitans
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.037
  • 42.5%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.049
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.80CPOE+1.12
  • 38.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.72
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. TEN are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11MIN @ TEN23–13MIN
2020 · W3TEN @ MIN31–30TEN
2012 · W5TEN @ MIN7–30MIN
2008 · W4MIN @ TEN17–30TEN
2004 · W7TEN @ MIN3–20MIN
2001 · W13TEN @ MIN24–42MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TEN
TENQ1 15:00935Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:2636Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:09753Field goal0–3
MINQ1 4:451566Missed field goal0–3
TENQ2 12:13633Punt0–3
MINQ2 7:53641Punt0–3
TENQ2 4:551373Touchdown0–10
MINQ2 0:41737Missed field goal0–10
MINQ3 15:0032Field goal3–10
TENQ3 13:5639Punt3–10
MINQ3 11:301058Field goal6–10
TENQ3 5:59842Opp touchdown12–10
TENQ3 1:2434Punt12–10
MINQ3 0:22942Field goal15–10
TENQ4 11:1710Opp touchdown22–10
TENQ4 11:03318Turnover22–10
MINQ4 9:4035Punt22–10
TENQ4 8:143-10Punt22–10
MINQ4 7:09645Field goal25–10
TENQ4 2:361059Touchdown25–16
MINQ4 0:2800End of half25–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill18/3323600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19311.60
Matt Asiata4133.30
Shaun Hill284.00
Cordarrelle Patterson188.00
Jerick McKinnon166.00
Stefon Diggs1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs791030
Kyle Rudolph48650
Adam Thielen45540
Cordarrelle Patterson1160
Charles D. Johnson1650
Jerick McKinnon1230
Adrian Peterson0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota25/4127121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray13423.20
Marcus Mariota4194.80
Derrick Henry530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tajae Sharpe711760
Delanie Walker35420
Derrick Henry22410
DeMarco Murray57352
Andre Johnson37300
Rishard Matthews34260
Harry Douglas25210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.16
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92