Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.037
- 42.5%Success rate45.5%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.049
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.80CPOE+1.12
- 38.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.65Points / drive1.72
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. TEN are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 18/33 | 236 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 31 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 25/41 | 271 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajae Sharpe | 7 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 7 | 35 | 2 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92