Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
35
Model margin
+1.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.003
- 40.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.001EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.18CPOE-2.44
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.59Points / drive1.83
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. TEN are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 10:04 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 8:43 | 10 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q1 4:05 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q2 14:53 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| MIN | Q2 10:19 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–13 |
| TEN | Q2 8:36 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–13 |
| MIN | Q2 5:34 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| TEN | Q2 5:28 | 5 | 11 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q2 3:42 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| TEN | Q2 0:48 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| MIN | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 11 | Missed field goal | 10–20 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–20 |
| TEN | Q3 12:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–20 |
| MIN | Q3 11:13 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 10–20 |
| TEN | Q3 9:39 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| MIN | Q3 6:54 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 10–23 |
| TEN | Q3 4:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–23 |
| MIN | Q3 2:31 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 10–23 |
| TEN | Q3 0:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–23 |
| MIN | Q4 14:48 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 10–23 |
| TEN | Q4 11:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–23 |
| MIN | Q4 10:13 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| TEN | Q4 6:00 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 17–23 |
| MIN | Q4 4:03 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–29 |
| TEN | Q4 3:46 | 1 | 6 | Touchdown | 17–30 |
| MIN | Q4 3:40 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–30 |
| TEN | Q4 1:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 25/43 | 266 | 0 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 18/35 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 2 |
| LenDale White | 11 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.70