Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
53
Model margin
+3.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play+0.162
- 41.5%Success rate50.0%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- 34.6%Third-down rate52.5%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.47Points / drive2.26
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 17/36 | 190 | 0 | 3 |
| Steve McNair | 2/5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/30 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 20 | 138 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80