Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play+0.011
- 38.0%Success rate42.1%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.87CPOE-2.66
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.29Points / drive1.91
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/43 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
| Rusty Smith | 3/5 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 24 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 9 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 25/35 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 8 | 10 | 108 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.61