2012 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

7·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

44

Model margin

+3.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapVikings
  • -0.093EPA / play+0.011
  • 38.0%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.87CPOE-2.66
  • 38.2%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.91
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11MIN @ TEN23–13MIN
2020 · W3TEN @ MIN31–30TEN
2016 · W1MIN @ TEN25–16MIN
2008 · W4MIN @ TEN17–30TEN
2004 · W7TEN @ MIN3–20MIN
2001 · W13TEN @ MIN24–42MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIN
TENQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:3535Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:0236Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:30991Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 2:31521Turnover0–7
MINQ1 0:28628Punt0–7
TENQ2 13:08411Turnover0–7
MINQ2 11:2444Field goal0–10
TENQ2 10:27526Punt0–10
MINQ2 7:341177Field goal0–13
TENQ2 1:523-9Punt0–13
MINQ2 1:29621Turnover0–13
TENQ2 0:1500End of half0–13
MINQ3 15:00432Turnover0–13
TENQ3 13:0030Punt0–13
MINQ3 11:311169Field goal0–16
TENQ3 5:0749Punt0–16
MINQ3 3:36661Touchdown0–23
TENQ3 0:051262Touchdown7–23
MINQ4 10:35638Touchdown7–30
TENQ4 6:381767Turnover on downs7–30
MINQ4 2:0028Punt7–30
TENQ4 1:31742End of half7–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck26/4320011
Rusty Smith3/53400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson15241.60
Matt Hasselbeck2105.00
Darius Reynaud188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright911660
Nate Washington48460
Jared Cook58371
Kenny Britt25230
Craig Stevens24140
Javon Ringer35120
Damian Williams1390
Taylor Thompson1270
Chris Johnson1150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder25/3525822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17885.20
Toby Gerhart6416.80
Christian Ponder33110.30
Percy Harvin284.01
Matt Asiata284.00
Joe Webb1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin8101081
Michael Jenkins34350
Rhett Ellison22350
Devin Aromashodu34340
Kyle Rudolph47231
Adrian Peterson33150
Stephen Burton1160
John Carlson1120
Jerome Simpson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.61