2020 · Week 3

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

31·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapVikings
  • +0.189EPA / play+0.089
  • 50.8%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback+0.175
  • +0.070EPA / rush-0.025
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +2.16CPOE+4.45
  • 47.4%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.30
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11MIN @ TEN23–13MIN
2016 · W1MIN @ TEN25–16MIN
2012 · W5TEN @ MIN7–30MIN
2008 · W4MIN @ TEN17–30TEN
2004 · W7TEN @ MIN3–20MIN
2001 · W13TEN @ MIN24–42MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–MIN
TENQ1 15:00664Field goal3–0
MINQ1 11:443-4Punt3–0
TENQ1 10:18513Punt3–0
MINQ1 7:37212Turnover3–0
TENQ1 6:5337Field goal6–0
MINQ1 6:01776Touchdown6–7
TENQ1 2:43742Turnover6–7
MINQ2 14:481088Touchdown6–14
TENQ2 8:561163Field goal9–14
MINQ2 3:18652Field goal9–17
TENQ2 1:41516Punt9–17
MINQ2 0:2421End of half9–17
MINQ3 15:0010Turnover9–17
TENQ3 14:543-11Punt9–17
MINQ3 13:29757Missed field goal9–17
TENQ3 10:15428Field goal12–17
MINQ3 8:57273Touchdown12–24
TENQ3 8:04875Touchdown19–24
MINQ3 3:5337Punt19–24
TENQ3 2:39365Touchdown25–24
MINQ3 1:221075Touchdown25–30
TENQ4 10:17939Field goal28–30
MINQ4 6:31627Punt28–30
TENQ4 3:42844Field goal31–30
MINQ4 1:4450Turnover31–30
TENQ4 0:5800End of half31–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3732101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry261194.62
Ryan Tannehill492.30
Darrynton Evans393.00
Kalif Raymond1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond331180
Corey Davis56690
Jonnu Smith58610
Adam Humphries47410
MyCole Pruitt22160
Derrick Henry23110
Jeremy McNichols1150
Ryan Tannehill1100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins16/2725132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook221818.21
Alexander Mattison8273.40
Kirk Cousins2147.00
Adam Thielen144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson791751
Adam Thielen35291
Dalvin Cook25180
Kyle Rudolph23111
Chad Beebe1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

49.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.26