Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play+0.089
- 50.8%Success rate49.1%
- +0.297EPA / dropback+0.175
- +0.070EPA / rush-0.025
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.4%
- +2.16CPOE+4.45
- 47.4%Third-down rate41.2%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 2.85Points / drive2.30
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. MIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/37 | 321 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 26 | 119 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 118 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16/27 | 251 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 181 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 9 | 175 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
49.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26