2001 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

7·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

+6.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPackers
  • -0.113EPA / play+0.054
  • 36.9%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 31.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.76
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3GB @ CLE10–13CLE
2021 · W16CLE @ GB22–24GB
2017 · W14GB @ CLE27–21GB
2013 · W7CLE @ GB13–31GB
2009 · W7GB @ CLE31–3GB
2005 · W2CLE @ GB26–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–GB
GBQ1 15:00766Touchdown0–6
CLEQ1 11:07417Turnover0–6
GBQ1 8:53746Touchdown0–13
CLEQ1 4:57523Punt0–13
GBQ1 2:4633Punt0–13
CLEQ1 1:4133Punt0–13
GBQ1 0:1033Punt0–13
CLEQ2 14:41336Turnover0–13
GBQ2 13:25522Punt0–13
CLEQ2 10:23674Touchdown7–13
GBQ2 7:081042Field goal7–16
CLEQ2 1:52428Opp touchdown7–23
GBQ2 0:4300Opp touchdown7–23
CLEQ2 0:43432End of half7–23
CLEQ3 15:00730Punt7–23
GBQ3 10:1634Punt7–23
CLEQ3 8:373-10Punt7–23
GBQ3 7:29942Missed field goal7–23
CLEQ3 2:01411Turnover7–23
GBQ3 0:0000Touchdown7–23
GBQ4 15:00578Touchdown7–30
CLEQ4 12:4037Punt7–30
GBQ4 10:53240Turnover7–30
CLEQ4 10:16515Punt7–30
GBQ4 7:2935Punt7–30
CLEQ4 5:4631Punt7–30
GBQ4 4:46411Punt7–30
CLEQ4 2:061070Turnover7–30
GBQ4 0:151-1End of half7–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch22/3320313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White211316.20
Tim Couch5377.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamel White910851
Kevin Johnson79540
Andre King34430
Quincy Morgan25140
O.J. Santiago1470
Jake Moreland0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre18/2813930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green211507.10
Dorsey Levens9728.00
Brett Favre210.50
Doug Pederson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bubba Franks45292
Dorsey Levens22251
Antonio Freeman26240
Ahman Green33180
Bill Schroeder25150
Tyrone Davis34140
Corey Bradford11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.0%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.85