Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
+6.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.054
- 36.9%Success rate42.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- 31.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.05Points / drive1.76
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 22/33 | 203 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 21 | 131 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 9 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 7 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Andre King | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Moreland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/28 | 139 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 150 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 9 | 72 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 29 | 2 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.85