2025 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

10·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -8.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.122EPA / play-0.176
  • 48.0%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback-0.212
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.115
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +5.62CPOE-5.66
  • 48.8%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.18
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W16CLE @ GB22–24GB
2017 · W14GB @ CLE27–21GB
2013 · W7CLE @ GB13–31GB
2009 · W7GB @ CLE31–3GB
2005 · W2CLE @ GB26–24CLE
2001 · W15CLE @ GB7–30GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00830Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:2633Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:14416Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:161248Field goal3–0
CLEQ2 14:53713Punt3–0
GBQ2 10:521440Punt3–0
CLEQ2 2:021047Turnover3–0
GBQ2 0:0400End of half3–0
GBQ3 15:0034Punt3–0
CLEQ3 12:323-8Punt3–0
GBQ3 11:041576Touchdown10–0
CLEQ3 3:23520Punt10–0
GBQ3 1:123-2Punt10–0
CLEQ4 14:49920Punt10–0
GBQ4 11:29635Punt10–0
CLEQ4 9:261471Field goal10–3
GBQ4 3:3837Turnover10–3
CLEQ4 3:0821Touchdown10–10
GBQ4 3:01520Missed field goal10–10
CLEQ4 0:21311Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love18/2518311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs16301.90
Emanuel Wilson6254.20
Jordan Love4184.50
Matthew Golden393.00
Savion Williams2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matthew Golden44520
Josh Jacobs59440
Tucker Kraft34290
Romeo Doubs22250
Dontayvion Wicks24210
John FitzPatrick22121

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/3614201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins18945.21
Dylan Sampson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku57400
Cedric Tillman33260
Harold Fannin Jr.34250
Jerry Jeudy15170
Isaiah Bond24160
Jerome Ford44100
Jamari Thrash2370
Quinshon Judkins1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.15
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.43