Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play-0.176
- 48.0%Success rate35.2%
- +0.274EPA / dropback-0.212
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.115
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- +5.62CPOE-5.66
- 48.8%Third-down rate33.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.39Points / drive1.18
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 18/25 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 30 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/36 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.15
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.43