Closing spread
GB -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.059
- 39.5%Success rate42.0%
- -0.097EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- 32.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.29
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 9:48 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 3:48 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 2:58 | 9 | 24 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 13:47 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 10:26 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 7:31 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 3:36 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 12:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–7 |
| CLE | Q3 10:58 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 13–7 |
| GB | Q3 8:59 | 11 | 61 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| CLE | Q3 2:42 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 19–7 |
| GB | Q3 2:26 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| CLE | Q4 11:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 19–10 |
| GB | Q4 10:00 | 13 | 101 | Touchdown | 19–17 |
| CLE | Q4 3:40 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 26–17 |
| GB | Q4 1:50 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 26–24 |
| CLE | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 21/32 | 336 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 32/44 | 342 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.53