Closing spread
GB -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.059
- 39.5%Success rate42.0%
- -0.097EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- 32.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.29
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 21/32 | 336 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 32/44 | 342 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.53