2017 · Week 14

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

27·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 24mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.146
  • 45.2%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.096
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.27CPOE-5.42
  • 39.5%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.07
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3GB @ CLE10–13CLE
2021 · W16CLE @ GB22–24GB
2013 · W7CLE @ GB13–31GB
2009 · W7GB @ CLE31–3GB
2005 · W2CLE @ GB26–24CLE
2001 · W15CLE @ GB7–30GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CLE
GBQ1 15:001174Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:50784Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 4:4534Punt7–7
CLEQ1 2:1734Punt7–7
GBQ1 0:406-2Punt7–7
CLEQ2 12:101280Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 5:12718Punt7–14
CLEQ2 2:08934Turnover7–14
GBQ2 0:1700End of half7–14
CLEQ3 15:0037Punt7–14
GBQ3 13:251369Turnover on downs7–14
CLEQ3 7:20988Touchdown7–21
GBQ3 2:491375Touchdown14–21
CLEQ4 12:50624Punt14–21
GBQ4 9:231037Punt14–21
CLEQ4 5:22517Punt14–21
GBQ4 2:37725Touchdown21–21
CLEQ4 0:1700End of half21–21
CLEOT38Turnover21–21
GBOT642Touchdown27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley35/4626530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15493.31
Brett Hundley7314.40
Aaron Jones4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams1014842
Jamaal Williams77691
Randall Cobb88390
Jordy Nelson45330
Geronimo Allison44290
Lance Kendricks25110
Richard Rodgers0100
Trevor Davis0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer20/2821432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell191216.40
Duke Johnson681.30
DeShone Kizer273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon36691
Corey Coleman56621
Duke Johnson44411
Seth DeValve23160
Randall Telfer12120
Isaiah Crowell33100
David Njoku1230
Danny Vitale1110
Rashard Higgins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.89