Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.146
- 45.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.019EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.096
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.27CPOE-5.42
- 39.5%Third-down rate33.6%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.77Points / drive1.07
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 35/46 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Brett Hundley | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 14 | 84 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 20/28 | 214 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 19 | 121 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Corey Coleman | 5 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89