Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.072
- 39.2%Success rate45.4%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.076EPA / rush+0.003
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.79CPOE+2.82
- 34.9%Third-down rate40.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.27Points / drive2.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 17/42 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 7 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/36 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Franklin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Boykin | 8 | 10 | 103 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Franklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83