2013 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

13·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPackers
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.072
  • 39.2%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.076EPA / rush+0.003
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -3.79CPOE+2.82
  • 34.9%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.27Points / drive2.19
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3GB @ CLE10–13CLE
2021 · W16CLE @ GB22–24GB
2017 · W14GB @ CLE27–21GB
2009 · W7GB @ CLE31–3GB
2005 · W2CLE @ GB26–24CLE
2001 · W15CLE @ GB7–30GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–GB
CLEQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:00440Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 12:22833Turnover0–7
GBQ1 9:331156Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 3:44710Punt0–14
GBQ1 1:12733Punt0–14
CLEQ2 11:361245Field goal3–14
GBQ2 5:111451Field goal3–17
CLEQ2 0:0300End of half3–17
GBQ3 15:00840Missed field goal3–17
CLEQ3 10:56314Punt3–17
GBQ3 8:37410Punt3–17
CLEQ3 6:4865Field goal6–17
GBQ3 5:03933Punt6–17
CLEQ3 1:101350Turnover on downs6–17
GBQ4 11:09554Touchdown6–24
CLEQ4 8:30818Touchdown13–24
GBQ4 6:0900Touchdown13–24
GBQ4 6:07533Touchdown13–31
CLEQ4 3:4400Turnover on downs13–31
CLEQ4 3:331140Turnover on downs13–31
GBQ4 1:2138End of half13–31
GBQ4 0:0000End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden17/4214911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee11393.50
Brandon Weeden22010.00
Chris Ogbonnaya4153.80
Fozzy Whittaker5112.20
MarQueis Gray1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron79551
Greg Little49490
Josh Gordon26210
Fozzy Whittaker25130
Davone Bess26110
Willis McGahee0100
Gary Barnidge0100
Chris Ogbonnaya0200
MarQueis Gray0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3626030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy22823.71
Aaron Rodgers4123.00
Johnathan Franklin263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarrett Boykin8101031
Jermichael Finley55721
Jordy Nelson56421
Eddie Lacy57260
Myles White1290
Andrew Quarless0100
Johnathan Franklin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.83