2009 · Week 7

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·3

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-5.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.124EPA / play-0.168
  • 44.9%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback-0.266
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +3.74CPOE-10.33
  • 47.0%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.23
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3GB @ CLE10–13CLE
2021 · W16CLE @ GB22–24GB
2017 · W14GB @ CLE27–21GB
2013 · W7CLE @ GB13–31GB
2005 · W2CLE @ GB26–24CLE
2001 · W15CLE @ GB7–30GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:441154Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 6:191052Field goal0–3
GBQ2 14:58671Touchdown7–3
CLEQ2 12:1169Punt7–3
GBQ2 8:58496Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 7:0163Turnover14–3
GBQ2 5:03815Touchdown21–3
CLEQ2 1:5666End of half21–3
GBQ3 15:001032Missed field goal21–3
CLEQ3 10:2337Turnover21–3
GBQ3 8:56851Field goal24–3
CLEQ3 3:341354Turnover on downs24–3
GBQ4 14:14899Touchdown31–3
CLEQ4 9:4235Punt31–3
GBQ4 8:5631Punt31–3
CLEQ4 7:143-10Punt31–3
GBQ4 5:52841Punt31–3
CLEQ4 0:2711End of half31–3

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers15/2024630
Matt Flynn1/21200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant271485.51
Brandon Jackson9313.40
Aaron Rodgers4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver23841
Greg Jennings58520
Donald Lee35390
Jermichael Finley11160
James Jones1151
Ryan Grant1130

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson12/299901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis15473.10
Jerome Harrison372.30
Derek Anderson231.50
Josh Cribbs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gaines22300
Jerome Harrison44230
Mohamed Massaquoi18220
Greg Estandia22100
Mike Furrey1250
Brian Robiskie0500
Josh Cribbs12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.86