Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-5.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.168
- 44.9%Success rate35.2%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.266
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +3.74CPOE-10.33
- 47.0%Third-down rate32.5%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 2.22Points / drive1.23
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/20 | 246 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/2 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 2 | 3 | 84 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 12/29 | 99 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gaines | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Greg Estandia | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.86