2021 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

22·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPackers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.136
  • 43.7%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.222
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.003
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.26CPOE+4.71
  • 39.1%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.45
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3GB @ CLE10–13CLE
2017 · W14GB @ CLE27–21GB
2013 · W7CLE @ GB13–31GB
2009 · W7GB @ CLE31–3GB
2005 · W2CLE @ GB26–24CLE
2001 · W15CLE @ GB7–30GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–GB
CLEQ1 15:00561Touchdown6–0
GBQ1 12:21717Punt6–0
CLEQ1 8:4510Turnover6–0
GBQ1 8:37658Touchdown6–7
CLEQ1 5:131051Turnover6–7
GBQ1 0:351078Touchdown6–14
CLEQ2 10:47670Touchdown12–14
GBQ2 7:0332Punt12–14
CLEQ2 4:42521Turnover12–14
GBQ2 1:51949Touchdown12–21
CLEQ2 0:1200End of half12–21
GBQ3 15:001076Field goal12–24
CLEQ3 9:121371Field goal15–24
GBQ3 1:073-1Punt15–24
CLEQ4 14:491034Punt15–24
GBQ4 8:5737Punt15–24
CLEQ4 6:41876Touchdown22–24
GBQ4 4:31517Punt22–24
CLEQ4 2:05825Turnover22–24
GBQ4 0:4329End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3622224

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb171267.41
D'Ernest Johnson45814.50
Anthony Schwartz22412.00
Baker Mayfield2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins56580
Nick Chubb34580
Jarvis Landry47550
Austin Hooper35260
D'Ernest Johnson1280
Donovan Peoples-Jones1650
Anthony Schwartz1151
Harrison Bryant1111
David Njoku0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3420230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12665.50
AJ Dillon9414.60
Allen Lazard11313.00
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00
Equanimeous St. Brown1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10131142
Allen Lazard25451
Aaron Jones56210
AJ Dillon33150
Josiah Deguara2350
Marcedes Lewis2320
Juwann Winfree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.63