Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.136
- 43.7%Success rate48.9%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.003
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.26CPOE+4.71
- 39.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.81Points / drive2.45
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/36 | 222 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 126 | 7.4 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/34 | 202 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 13 | 114 | 2 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63