2001 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Mike McMahon

14·47

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

36

Model margin

+8.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.101EPA / play+0.060
  • 39.1%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.8%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 0.89Points / drive1.58
  • 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16PIT @ DET29–24PIT
2021 · W10DET @ PIT16–16Tie
2017 · W8PIT @ DET20–15PIT
2013 · W11DET @ PIT27–37PIT
2009 · W5PIT @ DET28–20PIT
2005 · W17DET @ PIT21–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PIT
DETQ1 15:003-9Opp touchdown0–7
PITQ1 14:3300Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 14:33974Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 9:561587Touchdown7–14
DETQ1 2:392-3Turnover7–14
PITQ1 1:41615Touchdown7–20
DETQ2 13:3520Turnover7–20
PITQ2 13:08522Missed field goal7–20
DETQ2 10:22632Missed field goal7–20
PITQ2 6:57662Touchdown7–27
DETQ2 3:281264Touchdown14–27
PITQ2 0:261-1End of half14–27
PITQ3 15:00668Field goal14–30
DETQ3 11:563-8Punt14–30
PITQ3 11:02455Touchdown14–37
DETQ3 8:4631Punt14–37
PITQ3 7:351159Missed field goal14–37
DETQ3 1:323-7Punt14–37
PITQ3 0:0642Punt14–37
DETQ4 13:3833Punt14–37
PITQ4 12:00732Field goal14–40
DETQ4 7:3349Turnover on downs14–40
PITQ4 5:29729Touchdown14–47
DETQ4 1:084-5Turnover on downs14–47
PITQ4 0:351-1End of half14–47

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon12/2811821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamont Warren9485.30
Mike McMahon22110.50
Aveion Cason221.00
James Stewart210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bert Emanuel37350
David Sloan410322
Johnnie Morton25260
Lamont Warren11150
Scotty Anderson1230

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart17/2622630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala261264.80
Amos Zereoue23417.00
Kordell Stewart4225.51
R.J. Bowers7172.40
Tommy Maddox242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward711671
Plaxico Burress47561
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala22530
Troy Edwards22430
Matt Cushing2271
Bobby Shaw0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.61
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.52