Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
36
Model margin
+8.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play+0.060
- 39.1%Success rate42.5%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.8%Explosive rate11.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate45.8%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 0.89Points / drive1.58
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 12/28 | 118 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Warren | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Emanuel | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 17/26 | 226 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 26 | 126 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| R.J. Bowers | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 11 | 67 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.61
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.52