Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.046
- 46.0%Success rate40.8%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.278
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +3.69CPOE+0.41
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.22Points / drive1.78
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/31 | 317 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 25 | 76 | 3.0 | 1 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 10 | 193 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/45 | 423 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 11 | 128 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 4 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.12