2017 · Week 8

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

20·15

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapLions
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.046
  • 46.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.278
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +3.69CPOE+0.41
  • 43.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.78
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16PIT @ DET29–24PIT
2021 · W10DET @ PIT16–16Tie
2013 · W11DET @ PIT27–37PIT
2009 · W5PIT @ DET28–20PIT
2005 · W17DET @ PIT21–35PIT
2001 · W15DET @ PIT14–47PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DET
PITQ1 15:00659Field goal3–0
DETQ1 12:12755Field goal3–3
PITQ1 7:50431Turnover3–3
DETQ1 5:453-7Punt3–3
PITQ1 3:5234Punt3–3
DETQ1 2:17519Punt3–3
PITQ2 15:0033Punt3–3
DETQ2 12:44849Field goal3–6
PITQ2 9:11975Touchdown10–6
DETQ2 4:10542Field goal10–9
PITQ2 2:14753Turnover10–9
DETQ2 0:56763Field goal10–12
PITQ2 0:1300End of half10–12
DETQ3 15:0034Punt10–12
PITQ3 13:291027Field goal13–12
DETQ3 9:211066Turnover on downs13–12
PITQ3 4:254100Touchdown20–12
DETQ3 3:01974Field goal20–15
PITQ4 12:5433Punt20–15
DETQ4 11:49445Turnover20–15
PITQ4 9:31622Punt20–15
DETQ4 4:551072Turnover on downs20–15
PITQ4 1:54617End of half20–15

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/3131711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell25763.01
James Conner111.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster7101931
Antonio Brown510700
Jesse James23420
Justin Hunter1370
Le'Veon Bell2350
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100
Eli Rogers0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4542300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah11272.50
Theo Riddick4215.30
Dwayne Washington6122.00
Matthew Stafford11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones6111280
T.J. Jones48880
Golden Tate78860
Eric Ebron26580
Theo Riddick22240
Darren Fells13120
Jamal Agnew11120
Ameer Abdullah33110
Dwayne Washington1140
Michael Roberts0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.12