Closing spread
PIT -15.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play+0.057
- 38.8%Success rate43.9%
- -0.109EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.067
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.7%
- 38.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.99
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 17/33 | 212 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7/16 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 26 | 135 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.08