2013 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·37

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

45

Model margin

+3.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.001
  • 43.1%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.173
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.33CPOE+3.30
  • 42.9%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.82
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16PIT @ DET29–24PIT
2021 · W10DET @ PIT16–16Tie
2017 · W8PIT @ DET20–15PIT
2009 · W5PIT @ DET28–20PIT
2005 · W17DET @ PIT21–35PIT
2001 · W15DET @ PIT14–47PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PIT
DETQ1 15:001049Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 10:18873Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 6:2032Punt0–7
PITQ1 5:17463Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 3:58950Field goal3–14
PITQ2 14:053-3Punt3–14
DETQ2 12:4116Turnover3–14
PITQ2 12:31625Field goal3–17
DETQ2 10:31179Touchdown10–17
PITQ2 10:13659Field goal10–20
DETQ2 7:19579Touchdown17–20
PITQ2 3:5235Punt17–20
DETQ2 2:31562Touchdown24–20
PITQ2 1:4255Punt24–20
DETQ2 1:02952Field goal27–20
PITQ2 0:0400End of half27–20
PITQ3 15:0032Punt27–20
DETQ3 13:2232Punt27–20
PITQ3 12:2340Punt27–20
DETQ3 12:003-10Punt27–20
PITQ3 10:25942Field goal27–23
DETQ3 5:141373Turnover27–23
PITQ4 12:491797Touchdown27–30
DETQ4 4:4630Turnover27–30
PITQ4 4:11534Touchdown27–37
DETQ4 2:2987Turnover on downs27–37
PITQ4 1:3900End of half27–37

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/4636221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell9495.41
Reggie Bush12312.60
Matthew Stafford3248.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson6131792
Joique Bell34480
Kris Durham39420
Brandon Pettigrew35370
Reggie Bush25230
Jeremy Ross13190
Joseph Fauria12140
Kevin Ogletree0300
Theo Riddick0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4536740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell18362.00
Ben Roethlisberger6122.00
Felix Jones100.00
Jonathan Dwyer100.00
Antonio Brown1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown7131472
Heath Miller810670
Le'Veon Bell45520
Jerricho Cotchery35481
Markus Wheaton35380
Jonathan Dwyer22120
Emmanuel Sanders1220
Will Johnson1111
David Paulson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

6.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.33