Closing spread
DET -3
Total
45
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.001
- 43.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.173
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.33CPOE+3.30
- 42.9%Third-down rate37.6%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.75Points / drive1.82
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/46 | 362 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 13 | 179 | 2 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/45 | 367 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 13 | 147 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| David Paulson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33