Closing spread
PIT -11
Total
44
Model margin
+0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.169
- 44.8%Success rate39.2%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.144
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.22CPOE-6.85
- 40.3%Third-down rate35.8%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.83Points / drive1.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/30 | 277 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Limas Sweed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/37 | 282 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 5 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15