2009 · Week 5

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Daunte Culpepper

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -11

Total

44

Model margin

+0.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapLions
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.169
  • 44.8%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.144
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +4.22CPOE-6.85
  • 40.3%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16PIT @ DET29–24PIT
2021 · W10DET @ PIT16–16Tie
2017 · W8PIT @ DET20–15PIT
2013 · W11DET @ PIT27–37PIT
2005 · W17DET @ PIT21–35PIT
2001 · W15DET @ PIT14–47PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DET
PITQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:53953Field goal0–3
PITQ1 9:05678Touchdown7–3
DETQ1 6:44853Field goal7–6
PITQ1 2:231471Touchdown14–6
DETQ2 10:3731Punt14–6
PITQ2 9:04528Opp touchdown14–13
PITQ2 6:52652Touchdown21–13
DETQ2 3:51623Punt21–13
PITQ2 1:02334End of half21–13
DETQ3 15:001352Missed field goal21–13
PITQ3 8:14461Touchdown28–13
DETQ3 6:051258Turnover28–13
PITQ3 0:38616Punt28–13
DETQ4 11:5244Punt28–13
PITQ4 9:573-4Punt28–13
DETQ4 7:55965Touchdown28–20
PITQ4 4:5736Punt28–20
DETQ4 3:07926Turnover on downs28–20
PITQ4 1:0900End of half28–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3027731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall15775.11
Mewelde Moore284.00
Ben Roethlisberger4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward77851
Heath Miller56541
Mike Wallace25521
Santonio Holmes46500
Mewelde Moore33200
Rashard Mendenhall22160
Limas Sweed0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper23/3728211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith20532.60
Daunte Culpepper34414.70
Maurice Morris155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt58701
Kevin Smith34420
Derrick Williams23370
Bryant Johnson48350
Brandon Pettigrew36270
Maurice Morris12160
Will Heller11160
Calvin Johnson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -112.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.15