2021 · Week 10

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

16·16

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -9

Total

43

Model margin

+3.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.061EPA / play-0.051
  • 42.1%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.05CPOE-2.66
  • 34.7%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16PIT @ DET29–24PIT
2017 · W8PIT @ DET20–15PIT
2013 · W11DET @ PIT27–37PIT
2009 · W5PIT @ DET28–20PIT
2005 · W17DET @ PIT21–35PIT
2001 · W15DET @ PIT14–47PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PIT
PITQ1 15:001154Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:40310Punt0–7
PITQ1 8:0136Punt0–7
DETQ1 6:3739Punt0–7
PITQ1 4:27627Turnover0–7
DETQ1 1:3930Punt0–7
PITQ1 0:2036Punt0–7
DETQ2 14:11339Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 12:431478Field goal7–10
DETQ2 4:221167Field goal10–10
DETQ3 15:00685Touchdown16–10
PITQ3 12:091354Field goal16–13
DETQ3 8:26628Punt16–13
PITQ3 4:32621Punt16–13
DETQ3 1:4830Punt16–13
PITQ4 14:52627Field goal16–16
DETQ4 11:3176Punt16–16
PITQ4 7:09519Punt16–16
DETQ4 4:273-11Punt16–16
PITQ4 3:2233Punt16–16
DETQ4 2:22825Punt16–16
PITQ4 0:1900End of half16–16
DETOT424Punt16–16
PITOT238Turnover16–16
DETOT715Missed field goal16–16
PITOT34Punt16–16
DETOT3-13Punt16–16
PITOT1051Turnover16–16
DETOT122End of half16–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff14/2511400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift331303.90
Godwin Igwebuike25628.01
Jermar Jefferson34113.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown46610
Kalif Raymond46290
Trinity Benson23170
D'Andre Swift3650
Brock Wright1220
T.J. Hockenson0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph30/5024211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris261054.00
Mason Rudolph4369.00
Benny Snell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson713830
Ray-Ray McCloud912630
Pat Freiermuth59310
Najee Harris44280
James Washington26151
Eric Ebron22130
Kalen Ballage0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.80
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+3.32