Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
43
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.051
- 42.1%Success rate40.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.05CPOE-2.66
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.73Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/25 | 114 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 33 | 130 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 1 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 30/50 | 242 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 13 | 83 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 9 | 12 | 63 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.80
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.32