Closing spread
DET -7.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play+0.071
- 44.1%Success rate45.0%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.58CPOE+1.64
- 40.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 2.11Points / drive2.54
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/41 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 143 | 10.2 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 34/54 | 364 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 10 | 13 | 66 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 4 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.08