2025 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

29·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapLions
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.071
  • 44.1%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.58CPOE+1.64
  • 40.4%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.54
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–0–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W10DET @ PIT16–16Tie
2017 · W8PIT @ DET20–15PIT
2013 · W11DET @ PIT27–37PIT
2009 · W5PIT @ DET28–20PIT
2005 · W17DET @ PIT21–35PIT
2001 · W15DET @ PIT14–47PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DET
DETQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:08830Field goal3–0
DETQ1 9:211363Turnover on downs3–0
PITQ1 2:07731Punt3–0
DETQ2 13:30744Field goal3–3
PITQ2 10:1037Punt3–3
DETQ2 7:5430Punt3–3
PITQ2 6:1830Punt3–3
DETQ2 4:02662Touchdown3–10
PITQ2 1:551290Touchdown10–10
DETQ2 0:0200End of half10–10
PITQ3 15:00965Turnover10–10
DETQ3 10:333-3Safety12–10
PITQ3 9:421879Field goal15–10
DETQ4 14:5830Punt15–10
PITQ4 14:25461Touchdown22–10
DETQ4 12:231074Touchdown22–17
PITQ4 8:39475Touchdown29–17
DETQ4 6:411173Touchdown29–24
PITQ4 4:11643Missed field goal29–24
DETQ4 2:051450End of half29–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/4126610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren1414310.22
Kenny Gainwell9505.60
Jonnu Smith22814.00
Aaron Rodgers294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Gainwell57781
Adam Thielen44490
DK Metcalf49420
Darnell Washington34360
Pat Freiermuth44200
Scott Miller33190
Jaylen Warren2280
Calvin Austin III1180
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1360
Jonnu Smith0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff34/5436430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery4143.50
Jahmyr Gibbs720.30
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams59700
Jahmyr Gibbs1013661
Kalif Raymond45621
Amon-Ra St. Brown49540
Isaac TeSlaa47521
Anthony Firkser44400
Shane Zylstra35200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.08