Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.050
- 40.8%Success rate42.2%
- -0.233EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 34.6%Third-down rate42.5%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 0.28Points / drive1.40
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:02 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:28 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:42 | 11 | 32 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:44 | 10 | 75 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| MIN | Q2 11:15 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 13–0 |
| JAX | Q2 8:50 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 16–0 |
| MIN | Q2 4:54 | 16 | 70 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 16–3 |
| JAX | Q3 12:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–3 |
| MIN | Q3 10:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 16–3 |
| JAX | Q3 8:26 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 23–3 |
| MIN | Q3 0:40 | 4 | -1 | Turnover | 23–3 |
| JAX | Q4 14:12 | 4 | 15 | Field goal | 26–3 |
| MIN | Q4 12:09 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 26–3 |
| JAX | Q4 9:19 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 33–3 |
| MIN | Q4 2:12 | 11 | 53 | Turnover | 33–3 |
| JAX | Q4 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 33–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/24 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Elvis Joseph | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Damon Gibson | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 9 | 122 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Prince | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spergon Wynn | 24/39 | 218 | 0 | 1 |
| Todd Bouman | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Spergon Wynn | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 7 | 12 | 88 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.17