Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.162
- 39.9%Success rate50.0%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.097
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- 36.7%Third-down rate52.5%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.27Points / drive2.26
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–1 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 57 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:28 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 6:32 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 2:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 1:17 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 13:39 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 13:26 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q2 11:23 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q2 6:15 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:09 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 19 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| JAX | Q3 5:34 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 13–20 |
| MIN | Q3 3:36 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 13–20 |
| JAX | Q3 2:24 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 16–20 |
| MIN | Q4 13:28 | 11 | 57 | Turnover | 16–20 |
| JAX | Q4 7:46 | 14 | 55 | Opp touchdown | 16–27 |
| JAX | Q4 1:59 | 6 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 16–27 |
| MIN | Q4 0:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 19/34 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 147 | 6.7 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/27 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67